Belief in Science, Fact and Theory

The 3 Belief-Types – Belief in science based knowledge, faith issues, and subjective evaluations (opinions) are very different. When you consider belief in science, normally, belief in objective fact and theory isn’t a problem, but it’s worth understanding. As a psychiatrist, I often deal with an individual’s delusional believes: I’m from another planet; I’m two people; I killed JFK. Belief in objective facts is a gauge for someone’s wellness. Here I’ll look at Belief-Type 1: belief in scientific fact, theory and hypothesis to help understand our collective scientific belief.

Fact, theory or hypothesis?

We’re relatively sure of facts, less sure of our theories, and our hypotheses need to be tested. But let’s look at each of these to understand them.

FACT. Sciences such as physics, chemistry and astronomy contain accepted fact: 

            The sun is about 150 million kilometres away

            Sodium & chloride molecules combine to become a useful salt

            Light intensity decreases in proportion to distance squared.

Belief in these is easy. We learn them at school; we have faith in the scientific method and trust the experts. Other sciences, such as psychology, sociology and history, also contain facts but their measurements are less reliable, so belief in their facts take more trust:

Beethoven was born December 16th, 1770. (Or was it the 17th?)

Emotions are hard to control. (But is this true for everyone?)

95% of teenage males masturbate. (But do 5% lie?)

 Mathematics contains facts which are true by definition; it’s very useful to science. This is the “miracle” of mathematics.[i] Some mathematical facts are as objectively observable as having ten fingers on two hands. Mathematics can get very complex but, generally, you don’t have to trust experts that 5+5=10. Your hands and fingers almost make it true by definition:

 Given what “five” “adding” “two” and “ten” mean,

Then, if I add two fives together this will equal a ten.

 You almost don’t have to belief simple math; you can just learn it by rote:

Six times six is thirty-six

Six times six is thirty-six

Six times six is thirty-six

But try this and see how you go.

Six times six is thirty-seven

Six times six is thirty-seven

Six times six is thirty-seven.

Say it a thousand times, you’ll never believe it; it’s objectively untrue. A part of you is critically doubtful about what you’re saying and that’s very important. Facts in science can’t change just because you want them to:

I hope Jupiter becomes our nearest planet before teacher gets my exam.

Generally, we get into trouble if we try to bend objective reality: lie, pretend, or deny facts. Detectives and judges work to make sure we don’t do this, and scientists guard against it by looking out for biases (distortions of reality). As Churchill noted

Truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.

We live in an age that questions objective truth, and even in science, statements may be believed or not. Belief and scepticism, however, work together in science to move closer towards what we hope is objective fact (this area is being researched). Things are accepted as facts if they are true by definition, supported by strong evidence or enough scientists are satisfied that they reflect reality:

            5 + 5 = 10.

            Mars is about 70 million Kilometres from Earth.

            King Henry VIII reigned as monarch from 1509 to 1547.

 Still. Can we ever be 100% certain? We have to belief the evidence. In science, everything is open to doubt and being tested. Before it’s a fact, it may be a theory.

THEORY. A scientific theory is a well-established explanation of the real world based on evidence. A theory can change. It is retained if it stands the test of time and accurately makes predictions, otherwise it may be refined, modified, or thrown out.

These theories have been thrown out.

            The Earth is the centre of our universe (Ptolemy)

            Vulcan is a planet closer to the sun than Mercury (Le Verrier)

Atoms are indivisible and indestructible (Dalton)

            Aether flows down to the Earth’s surface as part of gravity (Newton)

The universe doesn’t expand, it’s steady in size (Einstein)

You can see it’s no disgrace to be wrong in science, it happens to the best. The following theories still stand but are still being refined and modified.

            Theory of evolution

            Big band theory

            Theories of general relativity and quantum mechanics.

Do you believe in these? Answering yes, no or I’m not sure are all scientifically legitimate. Theories may reflect reality, be incomplete or be false. Experts see that the theory of evolution is backed up by evidence, but they still argue over whether nature selects at the level of individuals, groups, genes or something else. Scientists “believe” in both general relativity and quantum mechanics even though they can’t both be fully right. This drives further research to solve the puzzle.

HYPOTHESIS. A scientific hypothesis is a testable idea. Current hypotheses include

            Multiple universes exist.

            Life arose out of matter through chemical reactions.

Scientists are very divided in their beliefs about these and other hypotheses. Some scientists don’t believe this universe actually exists let alone believe in other universes. Some believe life may have originated in outer-space or outside this time-space continuum altogether. We don’t know. What do you believe?

A science-based society tolerates and embraces uncertainty and differing beliefs while searching for evidence. With evidence, the aim is to move from testable hypothesis to theory to accepted fact. This, hopefully, gets us closer to understanding our reality.

Belief-faith-trust in science

To believe facts, we need to have faith in the scientific method and trust the expert scientists. It’s a flawed system, but the best we have. In my work as a clinical psychiatrist, I rely on evidence from good studies, but I always ask myself:

Do I believe the results of the trial?

Do I have faith in the methodology?

Do I trust the scientists?

Doubt arises. I remain sceptical. This is good for science. Many medications once thought helpful were found to be ineffective or harmful: thalidomide, rofecoxib, and reboxetine. Mistakes like these erode my trust in scientists and my faith in their methodology; how can I ever be sure of what to believe? Even our most trusted medical journals admit to getting it wrong in important areas like Covid treatments[ii] and stem-cell research.[iii]

Still, science is the best way forward and that’s why I rely on it. Up until the eighteenth century all swans are white was considered fact. The fact now is all swans are white except for the black ones in Australia. But could red, pink or purple swans exist in a parallel universe or on another planet? Doubt remains and we readily change our beliefs according to the evidence.

             Keep healthy doubt.

We change beliefs about our world through advances in technology and measurement. Is the speed of light constant? A recent study says it isn’t[iv] but can we trust it? Most scientists doubt it. But I don’t know, I need to trust the experts and have faith in their methodology. Psychiatrists used to think that mood couldn’t be affected by food, but evidence now shows that food and mood are connected.[v] We used to believe there were nine planets in our solar system. Now, some people think it’s ten or twelve, but scientifically it’s eight.[vi] What do you believe?

Doubt loosen old beliefs for more accurate beliefs to emerge.

Belief in scientific fact, theory or hypothesis depends on the strength of the evidence, faith in the scientific method and trust in experts. Doubt remains. We collectively change our scientific beliefs often.

  Evidence is the best way to confirm or refute beliefs in science.

            Fact, theory or hypothesis depends on evidence strength.

Doubt always remains.

We trust experts and have faith in science to believe our facts.

You can’t choose your facts.

You can choose your preferred theories, hypotheses and opinions.

Next we look at Belief-Type 2: Belief in faith issues.

Cheers.

[i] Wigner, E. P. (1960), The unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics in the natural sciences. Richard courant lecture in mathematical sciences delivered at New York University, May 11, 1959. Comm. Pure Appl. Math., 13: 1–14. doi: 10.1002/cpa.3160130102

[ii] Mehra, Mandeep R., et al. "RETRACTED: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis." The Lancet (2020).

[iii] Caplan, Arthur L. "Retraction—Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, non-specific colitis, and pervasive developmental disorder in children." The Weekly Epidemiological Record 84 (2009): 301-308. Lancet, The. "Retraction-Engineered whole organs and complex tissues." Lancet (London, England) 392.10141 (2018): 11.

[iv] https://www.livescience.com/29111-speed-of-light-not-constant.html retrieved 11 July 2018.

[v] Huang, Ting-Ting, et al. "Current understanding of gut microbiota in mood disorders: an update of human studies." Frontiers in genetics 10 (2019): 98.

[vi] See https://myfox8.com/2018/09/15/pluto-is-most-definitely-a-planet-and-should-never-have-been-downgraded-say-some-scientists/ retrieved 17 September 2018.